4 - Mike the Strike's 
Arizona Soaring Forecast

Updated Sunday, September 04, 2005

 

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 Weekend Outlook

The high pressure that brought the drying and hot weather is slowly moving away, allowing the gradual resumption of some monsoon moisture and a little cooling.  This was already occurring on Tuesday - a day earlier than predicted- but should continue through the rest of the week. 

The most probable weather for the weekend is mostly sunny with some cumulus and strong thermals with top of the lift at 9,000 feet or more.

NWS Synopsis (Sunday morning)

A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WILL RESULT IN A 
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK...MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW 
WILL THEN SLOWLY SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WILL DIMINISH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS ...AND CONFINE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS....HOVERING ABOUT 3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.


Sunday September 4th

Widespread moisture covers Arizona, and with upper-air disturbances moving through, the chance for showers and thunderstorms remains high.  Forecast models are split on Sunday's soaring.  RUC Blipmaps show a large area of cloud covering the desert areas that will suppress solar heating and thermals.  ETA Blipmaps are more optimistic.  Actual conditions will depend on whether or not the predicted cloud clears.

Both RUC and MAPS forecast soundings show lower predicted temperatures (high 90's and a more stable airmass low down, in line with the pessimistic Blipmaps.  I will go with that and call a soft day with a good chance of showers and storms.  3 knot lift to 8,000 feet.

Luke Forecast Sounding

Monday September 5th

Plenty of moisture around on Labor Day, together with a forecast low-pressure trough mean a cloudier and wetter day than Sunday.

Luke Forecast Sounding