4 - Mike the Strike's 
Hobbs Soaring Forecast

Updated Friday, June 10, 2005

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Outlook & Analysis

Thursday was pretty much as forecast, with the dryline cooperating nicely and good soaring in the drier air to its east.  I didn't specifically mention the strong winds in my forecast, but they were clearly evident on the soundings 

Friday looks like being an interesting weather day, since the dryline has again migrated west overnight all the way to the mountains.  A low pressure system and wave disturbances will affect the area, producing a greatly enhanced risk of overdevelopment and storms.  Saturday is likely to be a quieter day in the wake of the passing disturbances. 

NWS Synopsis (Friday morning)

..SHORT TERM...
LOOKING FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.

WHILE THE MODERATE SEVERE THREAT IS CENTERED OVER THE PANHANDLE THE 
LATEST SWODY1 PUSHES THE MODERATE RISK DOWN INTO CENTRAL PERMIAN 
BASIN AND THE SLIGHT RISK WESTWARD TO NEAR THE MOUNTAINS... SO HAVE 
EXPANDED AND INCREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SPC 
EXPECTING THE DRYLINE TO BECOME VERY ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. CURRENTLY MOISTURE PACKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS BUT ETA 
HAS DRYLINE MOVING EAST INTO DAWSON... MIDLAND... AND BREWSTER 
COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS 
AREA TODAY... BOTH AVN AND ETA HAVE IT CENTERED OVER SE NM AS OF 
00Z WITH BEST LIFT OUT AHEAD OF IT. A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE 
TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL PULL RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP ACROSS 
THE EAST. COMBINATION OF SHORTWAVE... DRYLINE... HIGH CAPE... 
OUTFLOWS FROM LAST NIGHTS STORMS ACROSS SOUTH PLAINS... AND MAXIMUM 
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CREATE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS SUPERCELLS 
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LAMESA... MIDLAND... TO BIG LAKE 
LINE. WILL HIT SEVERE THREAT HARD IN HWO.

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 90S AHEAD OF THE 
DRYLINE WITH LOWER 100S ALONG PECOS AND RIO GRANDE RIVERS. 
OVERNIGHT DRYLINE WILL NOT BE AS QUICK TO RETURN WEST AS UPPER 
TROUGH PASSES SO LOOK FOR SOMEWHAT COOLER MORNING TEMPERATURES.

Friday June 9th Forecast

With the moist air back west to the mountains and several weather systems crossing the state, look for an active day.  Current models agree that the more exciting development will be east of the New Mexico/Texas border and north, leaving the south task area the only viable flying area today.  The stratus should again burn off quickly and the dryline will move back east as the day progresses.,  The conditions for overdevelopment look very good to the east and north of Hobbs, with a high probability for some more impressive thunderstorms.  The southern task area looks like the best bet with a 5+ knot climb average up to 15,000 feet or higher.  Aloft, expect 25 knot southwesterly winds.

Hobbs Noon Forecast Sounding

Hobbs 3 PM Forecast Sounding

Saturday June 11th Forecast

Long range forecast show a drying and improved conditions on Saturday, at least over south-eastern New Mexico, with the dryline back in Texas where it belongs.  Blipmaps currently show a 4+ climb average to 13,000 feet, with cumulus and some overdevelopment to the north.