4 - Mike the Strike's
Updated Friday, June 10, 2005
Outlook & Analysis
Thursday was pretty much as forecast, with the dryline cooperating nicely and good soaring in the drier air to its east. I didn't specifically mention the strong winds in my forecast, but they were clearly evident on the soundings
Friday looks like being an interesting weather day, since the dryline has again migrated west overnight all the way to the mountains. A low pressure system and wave disturbances will affect the area, producing a greatly enhanced risk of overdevelopment and storms. Saturday is likely to be a quieter day in the wake of the passing disturbances.
NWS Synopsis (Friday morning)
Friday June 9th Forecast
With the moist air back west to the mountains and several weather systems crossing the state, look for an active day. Current models agree that the more exciting development will be east of the New Mexico/Texas border and north, leaving the south task area the only viable flying area today. The stratus should again burn off quickly and the dryline will move back east as the day progresses., The conditions for overdevelopment look very good to the east and north of Hobbs, with a high probability for some more impressive thunderstorms. The southern task area looks like the best bet with a 5+ knot climb average up to 15,000 feet or higher. Aloft, expect 25 knot southwesterly winds.
Hobbs Noon Forecast Sounding
Hobbs 3 PM Forecast Sounding
Saturday June 11th Forecast
Long range forecast show a drying and improved conditions on Saturday, at least over south-eastern New Mexico, with the dryline back in Texas where it belongs. Blipmaps currently show a 4+ climb average to 13,000 feet, with cumulus and some overdevelopment to the north.